Governorship Polls: How states will vote

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Come Saturday, March 9, the final section of the 2019 basic elections could be concluded with the conduct of 29 governorship and State Home of Meeting elections. About 14,000 candidates will vie for 991 State Home of Meeting seats. Within the simply concluded presidential election the All Progressives Congress (APC) and its candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, received in 19 states, whereas Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Celebration (PDP) triumphed in 17 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Nonetheless, this consequence could not essentially decide the end result of the governorship contest as native points come into play. Additionally, within the week following the February 23 ballot, there have been intriguing realignments in some states the place the presidential contest was very shut. That raises the stakes in a few states, with the prospect of surprises and upsets prone to unfold. On this piece, Yusuf Alli, Managing Editor, Northern Operation, Sam Egburonu, Affiliate Editor, Dare Odufowokan, Assistant Editor and Fanen Ihyongo look at the eventualities within the states that may be electing governors and challenge possible outcomes.

NORTH EAST ZONE

ADAMAWA STATE

No state provides the APC management extra complications than Adamawa the place it misplaced two senatorial seats opposite to the pre-election permutations. From the outcomes of the presidential and Nationwide Meeting elections, it was apparent that the state recognized with its son, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar who was the presidential candidate of the PDP.

The color of the governorship race within the state displays its property and challenges together with faith, ethnicity, safety challenges, the political elites, cash, gang-up by looters of public treasury up to now and good governance.

Greater than any state within the federation, the 28 governorship candidates are drawn from completely different spiritual teams and about 4 ladies are within the race too.

The record contains the incumbent, Governor Jibrilla Bindow; ex-Performing Governor Umaru Fintiri; a serial contender, Marcus Gundiri of SDP; Abdul-Azeez Nyako of African Democratic Congress (ADC), an Islamic cleric, Bappare Umaru of KOWA Celebration, who doubles because the Imam of Jamaatul Nasril Islam (JNI) Friday Mosque in Jimeta space of Yola city; a Christian cleric, Rev. Eric Theman, of Motion for the Restoration and Defence of Democracy (MRDD) amongst others.

The ladies aiming to steer Adamawa as governor are: Lami Musa of Individuals’s Celebration of Nigeria (PPN); Na’ama Bulama of Progressive Individuals Alliance (PPA); Rukayya Audu of Motion Individuals’s Celebration (APP) and Elizabeth Isa of Change Advocacy Celebration (CAP).

Going by efficiency, Governor Bindow’s achievements will make it a straightforward journey for APC. Sadly, some political leaders are indignant with the governor, who’s a minority, for not looting and sharing the state assets. However Bindow has upped the ante in Adamawa and his efficiency benchmark will create a hurdle for his successor.

The most important events competing for area within the state are APC, PDP and SDP. The ugly killing of a former Chief of Defence Workers, Air Chief Marshal Alex Badeh (rtd), has affected the fortunes of SDP as a result of he was alleged to be a significant sponsor of the social gathering’s candidate.

For Atiku, who has simply misplaced the presidential race, he’s additionally a part of the governorship race in an effort to consolidate his base. His anointed candidate misplaced to Bindow on the APC primaries in 2015 and it took him fortunes to win Bindow to his aspect.

He was instrumental to the emergence of Boni Haruna because the governor from 1999-2007 however after a chilly battle with ex-President Olusegun Obasanjo, he misplaced the initiative to the ex-president who wielded incumbency affect to anoint Vice Admiral Murtala Nyako who was unceremoniously impeached as a result of his spat over the Boko Haram insurgency with the administration of ex-President Goodluck Jonathan.

With a slim win of 410, 266 votes by PDP over APC’s 378, 078, the governorship contest remains to be open in Adamawa. President Buhari must pacify a former Secretary to the Authorities of the Federation, Babachir Lawal and the youthful brother of the First Girl, Dr. Modi who’re main the assault towards the return of Bindow.

Verdict: Battleground

BAUCHI STATE

The state boasts of 20 governorship candidates. However the robust contenders are the APC candidate Governor Mohammed Abubakar; the PDP flagbearer, Senator Bala Mohammed, who was a former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory;  a former Minister of Well being, Professor Mohammed Ali Pate and Ambassador Shu’aibu Ahmed Adamu of the NNPP.

Though all of the candidates signed a peace accord on December 21, 2018, the political environment within the state is tense as a result of its gubernatorial outlook is all the time unpredictable even supposing APC received final Saturday’s presidential and Nationwide Meeting elections. Some members of the category which introduced Governor Abubakar to energy in 2015 have fallen out with him.  Pate of PRP is anticipated to spring a shock if the outcomes of the Presidential and Nationwide Meeting elections haven’t dampened the momentum he had gained up to now few months.

The intervention of President Buhari, particularly his reconciliatory agenda among the many stakeholders has, nonetheless, stabilized APC within the state. The fortification of the social gathering by way of the defections of ex-Governor Isa Yuguda; a former Nationwide Chairman of PDP, Adamu Mu’azu, the rapid previous Deputy Nationwide Chairman (North) of PDP, Senator Garba Babayo Gamawa and a Board of Trustees member, Alhaji Kaulaha Aliyu has created limitations for PDP.  That is the primary time Yuguda and Mu’azu will discover a frequent political floor and pursue the identical objective.

Being a standard stronghold of Buhari, the governor could profit from his political goodwill. On the entire, the chances favour APC.

Verdict: APC

TARABA STATE

Some heavyweights are again to the governorship trenches towards the incumbent state governor, Darius Ishaku (PDP). They embody a former Performing governor of the state, Sani Danladi (APC), a former Minister of Girls Affairs and Social Improvement, Aisha Alhassan of the United Democratic Celebration (UDP), Babangida Umar of the SDP, Adamu Danbako of APGA and Danjuma Umaru – Nationwide Rescue Motion (NRM), amongst others.

However it’s a three-horse race between Governor Ishaku, Danladi, and Alhassan with spiritual, ethnic and insecurity as prime issues. The outcomes of the presidential ballot confirmed PDP as nonetheless the primary alternative with the opposition garnering 374, 743 as towards APC’s 324, 906.

A former Minister of Defence, Gen. Theophilus  Danjuma, can be a giant affect as a result of he has largely decided (or handpicked)  the governor of the state since 1999. However his cosmopolitan outlook, Danjuma doesn’t joke along with his ethnic and spiritual indulgences.

PDP should still have an edge as a result of the APC candidate (Danladi) and Hajiya Alhassan of UDP would possibly cut up Muslim votes.

Verdict: PDP

BORNO STATE

Regardless of the insurgency, Borno has about 41 governorship candidates, most of whom are paperweight politicians. The important thing actors within the battle for Authorities Home in Maiduguri are a former Commissioner for Reconstruction, Rehabilitation and Resettlement, Prof. Babagana Zulum (the APC governorship candidate) and a former state chairman of the All Nigeria Peoples Celebration (ANPP), Alhaji Mohammed Alkali Imam.

The PDP seems just about useless within the state and it misplaced its soul when a revered ex-Governor of outdated Borno State, Alhaji Mohammed Goni (1979-1983) defected to APC. Additionally, PDP’s abysmal efficiency on the Presidential and Nationwide Meeting elections has underlined its weak point.

Different components which have secured the state firmly for APC are the efficiency of the outgoing governor Kashim Shettima; the choice of APC stakeholders to sink their variations over gubernatorial primaries;  the defection of  a former nationwide chairman of PDP, Senator Ali Modu Sheriff to APC and the appreciation of the individuals of the state of Buhari  administration’s dedication to the battle towards the Boko Haram insurgency .

With the paltry 71, 7888 votes earned by PDP on the presidential election, solely a miracle could make it win the governorship ballot. The existence of two factions within the social gathering, led by Alhaji Usman Baderi and Alhaji Zanna Gadama respectively, has cleared the coast for a straightforward APC victory.

Verdict: APC

YOBE STATE

Yobe not solely has cultural affinity with Borno State, the sample of politics within the two states is usually related. The political leaders share the identical views and their voting development has been alike within the First, Second, Third and Fourth Republics. The March 9 ballot is thus prone to be a mere coronation of the APC candidate, Mai Mala Buni, who’s the outgoing Nationwide Secretary of the social gathering.

Despite a change of PDP candidate, the emergence of Ambassador Umar Iliya Damagum as the brand new commonplace bearer of the opposition has not improved the fortunes of the social gathering. Essentially the most vocal PDP member within the state, Buba Galadima, couldn’t even ship his polling unit in the course of the presidential and Nationwide Meeting elections. APC obtained 750 votes to PDP’s two votes there. It’s actually a one-horse race in Yobe State.

Verdict: APC

GOMBE STATE

The clear sweep of the presidential and Nationwide Meeting elections by the APC confirmed that ex-Governor Danjuma Goje has bounced again because the godfather of politics within the state.

The defeat of incumbent Governor Ibrahim Dankwambo within the senatorial election will weigh closely on the fortunes of the PDP. Saidu Ahmed Alkali of the ruling APC polled 152,551 votes towards Dankwambo’s 88,016 votes to win the Gombe North District seat.

However the governorship ballot will decide whether or not or not Dankwambo has lastly misplaced relevance within the state. The governor had seized energy in 2011 and just about overshadowed Goje. The 2 leaders have a date with historical past on March 9.

Whereas Goje is sticking to Inuwa Yahaya (an Hausa from Gombe Central) as APC governorship candidate, PDP and Dankwambo have opted for ex-Deputy Speaker of the Home of Representatives, Senator Bayero Nafada, who’s a Fulani from Gombe North.

In 2015, Goje fielded the identical Yahaya (his sincere ex-Commissioner for Finance) because the governorship candidate of APC however he misplaced the battle due to intra-party disaster wherein Nafada was the arrowhead of the revolt.

For the governorship race, ethnic colouration and the necessity for energy shift would possibly decide which of the APC or PDP will win the race to the Authorities Home. Up to now 16 years, Goje (from Gombe Central District) and Dankwambo (from Gombe North Senatorial District) have dominated the state and there may be agitation to permit energy to shift to a different zone.

The PDP has a belief hurdle to cross following the breaking of a pledge by Dankwambo to concede the governorship ticket to Gombe South. The PDP on October 3, 2018 misplaced Sardauna Gombe, Alhaji Jamilu Isiyaku Gwamna who defected from PDP to APC. Gwamna’s parting of how with PDP has tightened the noose on PDP.

Verdict: APC

NORTH CENTRAL ZONE

BENUE STATE

Opposite to predictions, the race seems tighter in Benue State going by the tally of the presidential ballot wherein PDP garnered 356, 817 votes as towards the APC’s  347, 668. With a distinction of about 9, 149 votes the 2 main governorship candidates, Governor Samuel Ortom (PDP) and Emmanuel Jime (APC) must work further laborious to win the March 9 ballot.

Though the farmers-herders clashes of 2018 will affect the ballot in Benue, the controversy can be shifting to points like efficiency, excellent wage arrears and allowances, the administration of bailout funds and London-Paris Membership refunds, latest sack of some native authorities chairmen, amongst others.

For Ortom, who boasted that he has retired ex-Governor George Akume, he has a two-in-one governorship battle to wage. He’s confronting Jime and Akume on the identical time. If Ortom will get re-election ticket, he’ll go down in historical past as a pacesetter and a large killer. In any other case, if he goes to sleep with the slim margin of 9, 149 votes, it could show deadly particularly if Chief Barnabas Gemade (Benue North-East) and ex-Deputy Governor, Stephen Lawani, Mike Onoja, Usman Abubakar, and different Idoma leaders pull assets collectively.

The outcomes of the senatorial election in Benue South confirmed that there may very well be an upset in the course of the governorship ballot if there’s a realignment of forces. The outcomes have been Abba Moro of the PDP (85,162 votes);   Lawani of the APC (47,972 votes); Mike Onoja of SDP (29,901 votes) and Usman Abubakar of APDA (5,504 votes).

Since Ortom and Jime are Tiv, the vote deciders is perhaps the Idoma. Because of this Ortom is over counting on a former President of the Senate, David Mark, ex-Minister of Inside, Senator-elect Abba Moro and different Idoma leaders.

Buhari shouldn’t be a candidate on this election, so consideration can be firmly targeted on native points just like the backlog of salaries owed by the state governorship. There are additionally questions as to the dedication of former governor Gabriel Suswam to the reason for re-electing Ortom. Given the complicated interaction of native components enumerated above, the race for the governor’s seat in Benue stays too near name.

Verdict: Battleground

KWARA STATE

The emergence of the “O To Ge” (Sufficient is Sufficient in Yoruba) revolution in Kwara State which led to the autumn of Senate President, Bukola Saraki, the PDP and all its candidates in the course of the presidential and Nationwide Meeting elections, has dimmed the hope of the social gathering at the moment ruling in Kwara State.

The brand new protest vote tradition within the state was really focused at a change of energy on the state degree. The March 9 ballot is anticipated to finish the revolution when Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq (APC) and Abdulrazaq Atunwa of the PDP face the voters. The state is within the temper to finish the coronation of the APC candidate.

What’s going to compound the PDP’s woes is the choice of some loyalists of Saraki to vote towards his candidate (Atunwa) due to the reckless method wherein he was imposed on them. There have been higher candidates than Atunwa however the Senate President insisted on having his approach.

The components that can interaction embody the poor/ woeful efficiency of PDP and its governor;  dilapidated infrastructure within the state; non-payment of excellent salaries of native authorities employees, lecturers of state-owned tertiary establishments and  road sweepers; the defection of bigwigs and members of Saraki dynasty from PDP to APC;  reneging on dedication to energy shift to Kwara North; the neglect of Kwara South;  the division in Ilorin Emirate occasioned by the APC governorship candidature of Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq and the problem which the selection of PDP governorship candidate Atunwa has provoked.

Verdict: APC

NIGER STATE

Forward voting in lower than every week, no governor is extra upbeat than Abubakar Sani Bello of Niger State, who’s a son-in-law to a former Head of State, Basic Abdulsalami Abubakar. He has been over the moon as a result of APC received the presidential and Nationwide Meeting polls within the state the place President Buhari has giant cult following.

Bello is about 90 p.c certain of returning as a result of he enjoys the arrogance of the political kingmakers within the state. Other than being from a rich household (which owns a minority stake in MTN and Amni Worldwide Petroleum Improvement Co., an oil exploration firm with a 50% curiosity within the Okoro Setu oil area), the daddy of the governor, Col. Sani Bello (retired) is a member of the navy elite dictating the tempo in Niger State.

The governor will profit from the goodwill of his father, the benevolence of his in-laws and adherence to the facility rotation formulation within the state, no matter whether or not a governor has carried out or not

Coming as he does from Zone C, there may be an unwritten settlement that any zone in energy should full its two phrases in workplace.

However, the governor’s fundamental challenger is Umar Nasko of the PDP, whom he defeated in 2015. The PDP candidate can be a son to Main Basic Muhammad Gado Nasko, who was the navy governor of Sokoto State between 1978 and 1979.

Not like in 2015, Nasko, who was a former Chief of Workers to ex-Governor Babangida Aliyu, doesn’t have the battle chest to confront the incumbent governor.

Barring seismic political adjustments, APC is prone to retain the state.

Verdict: APC

NASARAWA STATE

For the primary time since 1999, gubernatorial energy has been mutually ceded to Nasarawa South Senatorial District within the state by many of the political events on the prompting of Governor Umar Tanko Al-Makura who made the concession to beat the opposition to its recreation.

The governorship slot had rotated between Nasarawa West and Nasarawa South and any slip can be too pricey for APC. Although Al-Makura has anointed Abdullahi Sule ( ex-Group Managing Director of  Dangote Sugar Refinery) as APC governorship candidate, the choice is left for the individuals of Nasarawa North to simply accept him or go for both the PDP candidate, David Ombugadu or APGA candidate, ex-Minister Labaran Maku, who’s quick turning into a serial governorship contestant.

Except it’s effectively managed, the voting sample within the state could slide into the spiritual divide as a result of the Muslims are queuing behind the APC candidate and the Christians are cut up over Ombugadu (PDP) and Maku (APGA). The spiritual tone would possibly compound the ethnic cleavages within the state.

The personal sector credentials of Sule give APC a cushty edge. And with the victory of the APC in the course of the Nationwide Meeting elections, issues are including up for

Verdict: APC

PLATEAU STATE

The Unbiased Nationwide Electoral Fee (INEC) has already cleared 21 governorship candidates in Plateau State and 279 candidates for the 24 seats within the State Home of Meeting. A number of the candidates are Governor Simon Lalong (APC); Lt.-Gen. Jeremiah Useni (PDP); Mr. Godfrey Miri (SDP); Gen. John Temlong (ADP); Dr. Haruna Dabin, a former PDP chairman within the state, however now the candidate of PPC; Mr Timothy Parlong (APGA); Mr. Bitrus Musa (ADC); Alex Ladan (ANN) and Mr. John Bigwan (GPN) amongst others.

The political local weather in Plateau is much like its twin sister, Benue State however Lalong’s management qualities have reunited and restored peace to the state. The principle concern for the February ballot is the way to curtail the safety problem within the state. The PDP’s antidote is the selection of the 75-year outdated Lt. Gen. Useni, who was a former Minister of FCT underneath the late navy Head of State, Gen. Sani Abacha.

For Lalong, age is on his aspect and his technology can be extra preferable than the septuagenarian Useni.

One other concern is faith which ex-Governor Jonah Jang has exploited up to now to maintain PDP. However the main candidates Lalong and Useni are Christians – which takes the sting out of this issue.

The absence of imprisoned ex-Governor Joshua Dariye has created a setback for APC, however the governor has been capable of accommodate his construction within the scheme of issues. It will be a straight battle between Lalong and Useni, no matter what transpired within the state in the course of the February 23 polls.

Verdict: Battleground

NORTH WEST ZONE

KANO STATE

Ordinarily with the allegation of tens of millions of {dollars} bribery towards Governor Abdullahi Ganduje of the APC, the competition must be over integrity between him and his PDP rival Alhaji Abba Kabiru Yusuf.

However the hostility of Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso towards President Buhari and his defection from APC to PDP have modified the political narrative within the state to the border line between loyalty and treachery. That is the second time Kano State will undergo such expertise.

In the course of the 1983 basic elections, the PRP picked the late Aliyu Sabo Bakin Zuwo, who had no formal training as its governorship candidate towards the late Governor Abubakar Rimi of the Nigerian Peoples Celebration (NPP) who ran an “all graduate” State Govt Council. However Zuwo, rated as a semi-literate regardless of sponsoring extra payments within the Senate within the Second Republic, defeated Rimi due to his undiluted loyalty to the chief of PRP, the late Mallam Aminu Kano.

Previous to the February 23 ballot, the PDP was really effervescent with a lot hope that it might win Kano State or give APC an excellent battle. The defeat of the social gathering on the presidential and Nationwide Meeting elections has dimmed the possibilities of the opposition on March 9.

The demoralizing end result of the primary stage of the elections has left the social gathering to scavenge to choose up the items. If PDP has any drawback within the state, it has to do with the best way it carried out its governorship primaries that led to the anointing of Yusuf by Kwankwaso. The imposition weakened and depleted the social gathering.

The mass motion of ex-Governor Ibrahim Shekarau and his supporters from PDP to APC was the final straw that broke the camel’s again. Others who’ve abandoned PDP are Prof. Hafiz Abubakar, a former deputy governor to Governor Abdullahi Ganduje, a former Managing Director of the Nigerian Ports Authority,  Aminu Dabo; the rapid previous  Nationwide Treasurer of PDP, Bala Mohammed Gwagwarwa; Safety Adviser to Kwankwaso, Gen. Danjuma Dambazzau (rtd); Senator Isa Zarewa; and Mu’azu Magaji Dan Sarauniya, who was a former Senior Particular Assistant to ex-President Goodluck Jonathan on SURE-P.

APC could retain the state due to the Buhari issue: since 2003 he has by no means misplaced an electoral contest within the state. There may be additionally the inflow of recent influential defectors, and the incumbency issue of Governor Ganduje who’s extra standard among the many lots and Islamic clerics in Kano.

Verdict: APC

ZAMFARA STATE

With the courtroom clearance, the scramble for governorship in Zamfara State is by the PDP candidate, Alhaji Bello Mohammed Matawale, the candidate of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA), Abdullahi Sani Shinkafi and the APC candidate who the courtroom must decide. There are two candidates in APC particularly, the favored Dauda Lawal (a former Govt Director of First Financial institution) and Alhaji Mukhtar Shehu Idris.

It’s hoped that the reconciliatory course of initiated by Vice President Yemi Osinbajo will help Zamfara APC to get its act collectively. No matter it’s, APC will certainly win Zamfara governorship ballot as a result of PDP has a really weak candidate.

Verdict: APC

KATSINA STATE

For the return of Governor Aminu Bello Masari, Katsina State may be taken without any consideration by the APC as a result of he’ll profit from the large goodwill of President Buhari.

The PDP is certain to be affected by the bandwagon impact of February 23, 2019 presidential and Nationwide Meeting elections wherein it misplaced with a distinction of  924, 077 votes. The APC political hurricane is ravaging Katsina.

Though ex-Governor Ibrahim Shema and the PDP governorship candidate, Garba Yakubu Lado, are attempting to shake the APC, they can not go far.

Verdict: APC

SOKOTO STATE

Governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal is the final of the political titans, who defected from PDP to APC, whose destiny is but to be decided. Ex-VP Abubakar misplaced the presidency; Senate President, Bukola Saraki has fallen by the wayside, Rabiu Kwankwaso has misplaced the grip on Kano and Yakubu Dogara is now not returning because the Speaker of the Home of Representatives.

The Sokoto State governor has a date with historical past on March 9 as a result of the gubernatorial race will outline his political future particularly whether or not or not he’ll maintain afloat or slide into oblivion. He has misplaced two battles earlier than the governorship contest together with the lack of the PDP presidential ticket and the victory of the APC on the presidential ballot and the clearing of three senatorial seats within the state by the APC

His fundamental challenger is definitely not his erstwhile deputy, Alhaji Ahmad Aliyu, however his estranged godfather, ex-Governor Aliyu Wammako. From the heartbeat in the course of the marketing campaign, Wammako’s political treasure is his closeness to the lots.

Beside his stable construction, a few of these with Wammako are ex-ministers, lawmakers and APC leaders like Umar Nagwari Tambuwal, Muhammed Maigari Dingyadi, Yusuf Suleiman, Abubakar Shehu Wurno, Jibril Gada, amongst others. His fundamental asset, nonetheless, is his closeness to the grassroots.

Tambuwal has the backing of some forces within the Caliphate, ex-Governor Attahiru Bafarawa, Mukhtar Shagari and some different political leaders.

Thus far, the calculations should not trying rosy for Tambuwal whose efficiency had been very poor. He’s a laggard in comparison with the data of Wammako and ex-Governor Attahiru Bafarawa.

Verdict: APC

KEBBI STATE

The sterling efficiency of Governor Abubakar Atiku Bagudu of Kebbi State within the final three and a half years and his skill to maintain APC united, have made Kebbi a no-go space for PDP. He has introduced his expertise within the personal sector to bear in managing the financial system of the state. His deal with agriculture has led to huge employment and rice growth. With the backing of the revered ex-Governor of the state, Senator Adamu Aliero and Bagudu’s skill to win extra souls into APC, particularly ex-Governor Saidu Dakingari and his deputy, Ibrahim Aliyu, PDP is already stripped bare in Kebbi State.

Verdict: APC

KADUNA STATE

Even supposing the end result of the presidential and Nationwide Meeting elections in Kaduna State was in favour of the APC in Kaduna State, it is perhaps an uphill process for Governor Nasir el-Rufai who’s looking for a second time period ticket. He has a critical match within the candidate of the PDP, Mallam Isa Ashiru Kudan. Already, two candidates, Polycarp Gankon of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) and Ezekiel Habila of the Liberation Motion (LM), have withdrawn for Ashiru.

The color of politics within the state can be decided by safety problem, efficiency, the extended Hausa-Fulani/Southern Kaduna cat and mouse relationship, spiritual issue (particularly mutual suspicion by Muslims and Christians), the rising Shiite clan and its attendant grave safety implications and mistrust amongst political elite.

Within the midst of those daunting components, el-Rufai grew to become audaciously adventurous by selecting Hadiza Balarabe ( a fellow Muslim) as his working mate. Justifying the selection of Hadiza, the governor stated: “Muslim-Muslim ticket shouldn’t be a spiritual ticket however a reliable and efficiency ticket.” He had additionally argued the even when he picked the Pope as his working mate, the individuals of Southern Kaduna, wouldn’t vote for him. It’s a slippery choice which can redefine politics within the state.

However earlier than the March 9 ballot, el-Rufai has misplaced a leg of the tripod which might earn him votes. For wielding ethno-religious playing cards, APC might lose Kaduna South Senatorial District because it did on February 23 in the course of the presidential and Nationwide Meeting polls.

A political experimenter, el-Rufai’s biggest asset is the enthronement of recent governance modules which have diminished wastes in authorities. Other than pruning the dimensions of his cupboard, he has lower frivolous bills and his efficiency is considerable. However his garrulous, uncompromising and dictatorial management model at a degree alienated him from the lots.

El-Rufai’s different battle is his battle with political elite within the state. He’s a sufferer of his personal try and uproot the established order. There aren’t any outdated politicians in Kaduna State who’re with him.  Members of the outdated brigade who have been with him in 2015 like Suleiman Hunkuyi, Isa Ashiru,  Yaro Makama, and Ambassador Sule Buba at the moment are in PDP. These outdated fingers have teamed up with ex-Vice President Namadi Sambo, a former Nationwide Chairman of PDP, Senator Ahmed Makarfi, and ex-Governor Ramalan Yero.

The governor has, nonetheless, bred a brand new technology of younger politicians who’re managing to heat their hearts into the individuals of the state. If he succeeds in displacing the outdated brigade from energy subsequent month, he would have created a political document within the state.

However for the Buhari issue, el-Rufai could fail in his second time period bid. Additionally it is necessary to notice that the president shouldn’t be on the poll on March 9 and native points would decide the end result. The state is a flashpoint to observe.

Verdict: Battleground

JIGAWA STATE

About 19 candidates are jostling for the governorship seat in Jigawa State. Amongst them are the incumbent Governor Abubakar Badaru, recurring candidate of PDP, Aminu Ringim, Bashir Adamu (SDP), Sanusi Gumel (Peoples Democratic Motion), Abbas Mujaddad of ANN and others.

What’s at stake in Jigawa State is a battle for the soul of the state by ex- Governor Sule Lamido and Governor Badaru whose rice manufacturing revolution has empowered many voters of the state. His issues come up from his alienation of the political elite and a few royal fathers who should not having fun with as a lot largesse as they used to do up to now.

For Lamido, the lack of PDP to APC in 2015 was a catastrophe and he’s decided to regain the management of the state. His Achilles Heel, nonetheless, is the imposition of Ringim because the social gathering’s governorship candidate – a improvement which angered some PDP stalwarts.

The success of the APC on the Nationwide Meeting polls has deflated PDP in Jigawa such that the opposition is already threatening to boycott the governorship and State Home of Meeting elections except the State Commissioner of Police, Bala Senchi, is redeployed.

Verdict: APC

SOUTHEAST ZONE

ENUGU STATE

In Enugu State, the Peoples Democratic Celebration (PDP) candidate, Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, is finest positioned to win on this week’s governorship election. A PDP stronghold, the social gathering received final week’s Presidential and all of the Nationwide Meeting elections within the state.

Unbiased Nationwide Electoral Fee State Collation Officer, Prof. Joseph Ahaneku, who’s the Vice Chancellor, Nnamdi Azikiwe College, Awka, introduced that the social gathering received within the 17 native authorities areas of the state.

Out of the 421,014 legitimate votes within the state, PDP scored 355,553 votes towards 54,423 votes polled by the All Progressives Congress within the state. 30,049 votes have been declared invalid.

The social gathering’s efficiency within the elections confirmed prediction that besides one thing further extraordinary occurs between now and Saturday, Governor Ugwuanyi will most definitely to document a landslide victory within the governorship election. Apart from flying the flag of the social gathering that has remained most acceptable within the state, the governor’s efficiency within the final 4 years, which his admirers described as superlative, plus his pleasant disposition with all, together with politicians within the opposition, will enhance his probabilities.

Because the return of democracy in 1999, Enugu has remained a PDP state. In 2015, for instance, PDP garnered 553,003 out of the whole 573,173 viable votes forged in that yr’s presidential election, leaving the opposite 13 political events that contested that election to share the remaining 20,170 votes.

Though APC within the state now boasts of getting prime political leaders like former Governor Sullivan Chime, former Senate President Ken Nnamani and an influential governorship candidate, within the particular person of Senator Ayogu Eze, it appears solely sensible to foretell that the social gathering, if it really works even more durable, could win some state constituencies on this Saturday’s state elections, not like what occurred final weekend when it misplaced all of the elections within the Presidential and Nationwide Meeting Elections to PDP. If the social gathering wins some State Home of Meeting Elections, it’s going to, in a approach assist to spice up the energy of the social gathering in Enugu State’s native politics within the subsequent 4 years.

Verdict: PDP

ABIA STATE

Abia State has been one other PDP stronghold since 1999. However as we reported earlier, under-performance or lack of high quality dividends of democracy within the state has resulted to outcry from throughout the state for much reaching adjustments.

Though Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, the candidate of PDP in final week’s presidential election, received the state, scoring 219,698 as towards APC’s 85,058, it’s predicted that within the governorship election, this sense of poor efficiency will in the end have an effect on the best way the individuals will vote within the forthcoming Governorship and State Home of Meeting Election.

As we hinted in our earlier reviews, most stakeholders within the state are livid to notice that Abia, although an oil-producing state, is in the present day one of many least developed within the nation, bodily infrastructure sensible, a improvement that has resulted in aggressive agitation for change of management.

The sensation that the state wanted socio-political change preceded 2015 elections. Then, majority of voters merely stayed away throughout Election Day. The data confirmed that the state recorded excessive degree political apathy that yr. Our investigation exhibits that this perspective has modified tremendously. In all of the 17 native authorities areas of the state, campaigns have been comparatively extra passionate and decided. It’s being alleged that the renewed curiosity is a results of well-coordinated schemes to place Abia on a brand new path.

The results of this new disposition has began to manifest, not less than contemplating the end result of final week’s Presidential and Nationwide Meeting Elections. It may very well be stated in the present day that along with PDP, the assist base of two different political events; the All Progressives Congress (APC), led by former Governor Orji Uzor Kalu, now Senator-elect and the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), led by Dr. Alex Otti, its governorship candidate, have turn out to be very vital.

Because the state prepares for the governorship and State Meeting elections, even the ruling PDP can not deny the evident stress occasioned by the rising energy of the opposition. The query in most observers’ lips is will PDP’s candidate, Governor Okezie Ikpeazu take pleasure in the identical ease his PDP predecessors loved in earlier elections?

Prior to now, PDP flagbearers all the time took it without any consideration that they’d be given the mandate. It appears a lot has modified in Abia. Take what occurred in Abia North Senatorial Zone for instance in final weekend’s elections, the place APC candidate defeated the incumbent PDP Senator with ease. If such a improvement is repeated in the course of the governorship election, the incumbent governor, who’s the PDP governorship candidate, could must work more durable to be reelected.

Our investigation exhibits that not like presidential election, the place the plain reputation of Peter Obi specifically and the relative acceptability of Atiku within the state, favoured PDP, the governorship could also be a direct evaluation between the recognition and acceptability of the incumbent governor Ikpeazu and the main figures in APGA and APC..

We gathered that APGA’s candidate, Dr. Alex Otti, enjoys excessive reputation within the state, identical as APC’s governorship candidate, Uche Ogah. In the course of the 2015 governorship election, each Otti and Ogah performed essential roles. It will be recalled that Ogah and Governor Ikpeazu contested PDP primaries. The competition dragged to the submit elect judicial battle, the place, at a stage, the courtroom dominated that Ogah was the rightful candidate of PDP who was really given the mandate to control. It took an attraction to overrule that judgment and permit Ikpeazu to imagine the mandate. The mass jubilation amongst the youths throughout the state when Ogah was quickly named the governor-elect 4 years in the past provides credence to his reputation. As for Otti, who additionally flew the ticket of APGA, his extensive acceptability in Abia is well-known each by his supporters and his opponents.

These affirm the view that the forthcoming governorship election can be a sizzling contest. Insiders stated Otti’s grassroots marketing campaign forward of this contest is much more efficient than what he did in 2015. But, in 2015, majority of the insider observers nonetheless argue that he really received the election, alleging that his victory was robbed by the PDP authorities. Sources stated Otti and his social gathering, APGA is much more positioned now to win the governorship in Abia.

Additionally, it’s believed that APC can now not be taken without any consideration in Abia in the present day. It will be recalled that even in 2015, when the social gathering didn’t have some political heavyweights it parades in the present day, it got here second within the state in the course of the presidential election when it obtained 13,394 legitimate votes. So, the permutation in the present day is that the governorship race can be a three-horse race. It is because apart the facility of incumbency which Ikpeazu’s PDP will clearly take pleasure in, the governor could be contesting towards APGA’s Otti and APC’s Ogah, two influential politicians whose events have additionally improved considerably in Abia.

The difficulty subsequently is to see how far Ikpeazu would be capable to make the most of his energy of incumbency provided that, not like what has been occurring in Abia, his social gathering, the PDP, could not get any undue assist from the Federal Authorities businesses to win the election. Nonetheless, towards nice odds, we report that, PDP is prone to win the governorship election primarily due to the incumbency issue in any other case, APGA’s Otti stands a greater probability, going by the extent of affection and assist he enjoys throughout the size and breadth of the state.

Additionally, contemplating the victory it recorded in Orji Uzor Kalu’s Abia North Senatorial District, APC appears set to with many Home of Meeting seats from the district and from Ohuhu space of Abia Central and a few Abia South Senatorial space, Governor Okezie Ikpeazu space. This exhibits that even when PDP succeeds in profitable the governorship, the following Abia State Home of Meeting will now not be an all PDP affair.

Verdict: PDP

IMO STATE

This week’s suspension of Governor Rochas Okorocha from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the outcomes of the Presidential and Nationwide Meeting Elections in Imo State, have additional proven that the facility recreation between Okorocha and his estranged former political associates in APC in Imo is poised to form how the individuals will vote within the state.

As the one Southeast state at the moment underneath the management of an All Progressives Congress-led authorities, one would have anticipated the ruling social gathering, to win the governorship election with ease. However following the intricate energy battle amongst its leaders, there may be the concern that besides the present leaders of the social gathering works more durable, APC could even lose this governorship race.

Sources blamed this chance on the sustained criticism of the management model of Governor Rochas Okorocha, a improvement that was worsened by the fallout of the governorship primaries’ disagreements which led to a significant division between Okorocha and the management of the ruling social gathering, APC, over the selection of the governorship candidate. Whereas Okorocha had pushed for Uche Nwosu because the social gathering’s candidate, the social gathering lastly selected Senator Hope Uzodinma with the Deputy Governor, Prince Eze Madumere, as his working mate.

For APC, the implication of this improvement is that going into the governorship race as a divided political household, could show to be a significant drawback. Till this week’s suspension of Okorocha, the outgoing governor has remained a member of the social gathering, flying one among its three senatorial flags, however the truth that he was already working towards the governorship candidate of the social gathering. Many observers, together with APC’s governorship candidate, Senator Hope Uzodinma, had cried out that this awkward state of affairs could have an effect on the social gathering negatively. Paradoxically, the social gathering didn’t do something to the event till this week when it suspended the governor lower than two weeks to the essential election.

Apart from the truth that Okorocha, because the incumbent governor, will now most definitely give all his assist to Uche Nwosu of Motion Alliance (AA), it stays to be seen how APC management within the state would be capable to handle this delicate state of affairs earlier than this week’s Saturday in an effort to retain the state with out Okorocha.

By the way, the uncertainty shouldn’t be restricted to APC. The opposite main social gathering, the PDP, can now not be described as being very robust in Imo because it was in 2015. Nonetheless, PDP’s governorship candidate, former Deputy Speaker of Home of Representatives, Hon. Emeka Ihedioha, appears to benefit from the highest reputation ratio than any of the opposite candidates. For him, subsequently, he stands an excellent probability of reaping from the APC energy disaster, all issues being equal.

Greater than what occurred in the course of the Presidential and NASS Elections, APC and PDP must battle laborious to win the governorship election.

However the sentiment that Uche Nwosu, the candidate of Motion Alliance, was foisted on the individuals by outgoing governor Okorocha, the youthful candidate is one other necessary candidate to observe on this election. However insiders stated many citizens, which means to get at Okorocha are prone to vote towards him within the election. It stays nonetheless to see how far this possible response will have an effect on his efficiency within the election. His marketing campaign was in all probability probably the most financed and subsequently very deep into the grassroots.

Verdict: Battleground

EBONYI STATE

Ebonyi State has remained a PDP state since 1999 and there’s no definitive issue that implies there could be a change on this yr’s governorship election. Throughout final week’s Presidential and NASS elections, the social gathering received simply within the state as PDP garnered 258,573 votes whereas APC’s candidate obtained solely 90,726 votes.

Earlier than the presidential election, there have been speculations that Governor Dave Umahi, who has some private household relationship with APC’s President Muhammadu Buhari, may fit towards his social gathering’s candidate, Atiku, in favour of Buhari. That didn’t occur, a affirmation that PDP in Ebonyi State stays united and robust.

It will be recalled that out of the 363,888 legitimate votes forged within the state in 2015, PDP, in collaboration with APGA, harvested a whopping 323,653 votes, leaving solely 19,518 for APC, which got here second.

Following the clarification mid final yr that the argument over positions between outdated members and new members didn’t reach dividing the social gathering within the state, it appears Governor Dave Umahi, can be contesting on a united platform with added benefit of incumbency issue.

Apart from, investigation confirms that most people in Ebonyi are proud of the efficiency of Umahi, who one among them, Nkama Oka, described as “a real engineer, opening up the hinterlands.”

This aside, there may be the sensation that PDP stands a fantastic probability as a result of APC within the state could not have improved a lot as to count on any tangible distinction in its 2015 efficiency. It will be recalled that though it got here second in 2015, the social gathering, led within the state by Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu, the Minister of Science and Expertise, obtained solely19, 518 votes.

Verdict: PDP

SOUTH-SOUTH ZONE

RIVERS STATE

Subsequent Saturday’s governorship and State Meeting election in Rivers State is a stroll within the park for the PDP as it is going to be contesting in a one sided election that won’t be that includes its fundamental rival, the APC. The opposition social gathering has been saved out of the race by a Supreme Court docket judgement that confirmed INEC’s place that it didn’t conduct acceptable main election inside the stipulated time.

To additional smoothen the journey to re-election for Governor Nyesom Wike and his social gathering, a Federal Excessive Court docket sitting in Port Harcourt and presided over by Justice E.A. Obile, has sacked the governorship candidate for Accord Celebration, Chief Dumo Lulu-Briggs. Briggs, observers say, has been seen as the one candidate remaining within the race that may put up some problem, albeit minute, to the PDP.

He was sacked on the grounds that he was not the genuine candidate for the social gathering. Dumo Lulu-Briggs was subsequently changed with Mr. Valuable Baridoo, who was stated to have received the governorship ticket of the social gathering on the social gathering’s main elections. Justice Obile in his judgement stated that as on the time of the social gathering’s primaries, Lulu- Briggs was nonetheless a chieftain of the APC.

Rivers State, which began out in 1999 as a PDP state grew to become a significant APC state underneath the then governor Rotimi Amaechi who ruled it for eight years. Nonetheless, Amaechi’s erstwhile political godson, Nyesom Wike’s emergence because the state governor, on the ticket of PDP, not solely returned the state to PDP however marked the start of an intriguing political rivalry that has held the breathe of Nigerians.

Largely as a result of Amaechi, the present Minister of Transportation can be the Director-Basic of Muhammadu Buhari’s Presidential re-election marketing campaign, the expectation, till the courtroom nailed APC within the state, was excessive that he ought to make sure APC’s victory in the course of the basic election. Each due to the excessive workplaces he at the moment occupies and the truth that it has turn out to be a private battle between him and his former ally, Wike.

Paradoxically, the identical stress was on Wike to ship Rivers to PDP. It will be recalled that Wike loved unalloyed assist of the previous first household, the Jonathans, when he contested for the workplace of the governor of the state towards the endorsement of Amaechi. The 2019 elections would have been a chance for Wike and Amaechi to check their political energy once more, however the Supreme Court docket foiled that. Because it stands, PDP is ready to say the state as soon as once more.

Verdict: PDP

DELTA STATE

True to many predictions, Delta State voted for the PDP and its candidates in the course of the Presidential and Nationwide Meeting elections. However for Senator Omo-Agege and a handful of Home of Representatives candidates who received for the APC, it might have been an all PDP affair. The state has remained a PDP state since 1999. On condition that the social gathering has continued to develop underneath the management of Governor Arthur Ifeanyi Okowa, there may be probability that it might nonetheless win this yr’s governorship election.

It will be recalled that out of the 1,267,773 legitimate votes forged within the state in the course of the 2015 presidential election, PDP obtained 1,211,405 votes, whereas APC obtained 48,910 votes. Taking a look at this determine, one would ordinarily write off any social gathering contesting with the ruling social gathering, PDP, in Delta. And final week, the social gathering received in 23 native authorities areas out of 25 within the state within the presidential race.

General, the PDP polled 594,068 votes throughout the 25 native authorities, whereas All Progressives Congress scored 221,292 votes. PDP received the election in Aniocha South, Aniocha North, Oshimili South, Oshimili North, Ika South, Ika North-East, Burutu, Sapele, Ughelli South, Okpe, Warri South, Warri South West, Warri North and Udu. The opposite areas the place the PDP additionally received are Ethiope West, Bomadi, Uvwie, Isoko North, Isoko South, Ndokwa East, Ndokwa West, Burutu and Patani.

The APC, he stated, received in Ethiope East and Ughelli North. Prior to now, a lot occurred within the politics of the state, particularly inside the opposition APC, that made observers imagine the APC could spring surprises. However not even the defection of the previous governor of the state, Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan, to APC final yr, then thought of a significant plus for the social gathering, might wrought a lot magic. Uduaghan misplaced his senatorial bid.

Additionally, the disagreement within the APC in the course of the run-up to the primaries should still have an effect on the efficiency of the social gathering within the forthcoming election. It will be recalled that the faction led by Prophet Jones Erue and dependable to Senator Ovie Omo-Agege and Chief Nice Ogboru had overtly opposed direct primaries whereas the opposite APC faction within the state loyal to Olorogun Otega Emerhor and Chief Hyacinth Enuha threw its weight behind the state and presidential direct primaries within the state.

Additionally it is clear that aside from influential politicians like Okowa, Uduaghan, Nice Ogboru, Omo-Agege and Otega Emerhor, the opposite prime politicians that can affect the results of the election within the state embody conventional political leaders within the state like former governor James Ibori and plenty of big-wigs inside his political household. Many of those, observers say, are sympathetic to the ruling PDP.

Verdict: PDP

CROSS RIVER STATE

In Cross River State, the PDP seems to be good to repeat its 2015 landslide victory within the state regardless of some enchancment within the visibility of the opposition APC after the final basic election. This, pundits stated, is because of two main causes. First, the APC is at the moment divided into two factions that even produced two governorship aspirants, particularly Usani Usani Uguru (a serving Minister) and John Enoh.

The 2 factions have failed to succeed in a peaceable accord regardless of a number of efforts by social gathering leaders like ex-Governor Clement Ebri and Chief Edem Duke, in addition to the nationwide management of the social gathering. As a substitute, the social gathering remained fictionalised and analysts insist that is hurting its probabilities on the ongoing basic elections. This was apparent with the results of the Presidential and Nationwide Meeting polls. Little doubt, the forthcoming election can be affected by this too.

Secondly, Governor Ben Ayade and his predecessor, Liyel Imoke, seem to nonetheless have their agency grips on the politics of the state. The harmonious relationship between the duo, regardless of insinuations that they’ve fallen aside, helped the ruling PDP to wax stronger after the final election. Throughout the state, the governor can be adjudged as having completed effectively. So, PDP seems to be good to get the votes.

Had the disaster inside the APC been resolved lengthy sufficient earlier than the guber polls, the social gathering could have fared higher than it’s going to do now that it nonetheless stays divided. However even at that, it’s uncertain if that may have helped it to upstage the ruling PDP. At finest, the APC could once more come a distant second within the state within the subsequent election.

Verdict: PDP

AKWA IBOM STATE

The result of the competition between Buhari and Atiku has modified the permutations of many observers of the politics of the state. Not just a few had thought the APC will put up a powerful battle for votes in Akwa Ibom state largely on the energy of the defection of former Governor Godswill Akpabio from the PDP to the APC. However the results of the presidential election proved in any other case. To additional show many pundits mistaken, Akpabio misplaced his re-election bid within the senatorial race.

Thus, the political narrative within the state has been modified as we go into the following election which is extra native in context. The APC can be going into the election because the underdog whereas the PDP, having confirmed its robust maintain on the politics of the state, can be having fun with rave assessment from observers. Little doubt, Akpabio’s loss may also have a devastating impact on the morale of APC’s foot-soldiers throughout the state and this will have an effect on the social gathering’s efficiency on the polls.

The PDP seems to be good to say this state within the governorship and State Meeting Elections, however it’s nonetheless attainable for the APC to place up an excellent battle in some components of the state. The political division between Akpabio and Governor Udom Gabriel Emmanuel will nonetheless play out in Saturday’s elections. It is rather possible that APC will clinch some seats, particularly in Akpabio’s senatorial district of Akwa-Ibom Northwest.

Not minding Akpabio’s surprising defeat, the APC can be counting on the previous governor’s political equipment throughout the state, aided by the political affect of different APC chieftains like Umanah Umanah, Nsima Ekere (a former deputy governor), John Akpan Udoedehe, Don Etiebet, Ime Umana, Group Capt. Sam Ewang (Rtd), amongst others, to treatment its earlier disagreeable outing.

Based on very dependable political permutations, the APC will nonetheless contest for the votes of the individuals of Akwa-Ibom South Senatorial District fairly effectively. Each Governor Udom Emmanuel and Nsima Ekere, the APC candidate, hail from there. The individuals will clearly be divided of their alternative.  Though Akon Eyakenyi of PDP polled 122,412 votes, to defeat Senator Nelson Effiong of APC who polled 44,053 votes within the senatorial race, pundits say the opposition social gathering can nonetheless pull strings on Saturday.

It was additionally gathered that the need of the individuals to reap the benefits of a chance for his or her zone to benefit from the governorship slot for much longer, supplied by the candidacy of Ekere, could one way or the other work in favour of the APC. “There are talks that voting Ekere could give Eket the prospect to spend 12 years as a substitute of eight years in workplace as governor. If this informs the individuals’s voting habits on Election Day, PDP could also be in hassle in Governor Emmanuel’s personal yard,” an analyst stated.

For Governor Emmanuel and the PDP, pundits say their main energy lies within the energy of incumbency and the flexibility to showcase the achievements of the present administration to the individuals of the state. Not just a few have claimed the victory of the PDP within the state in the course of the Presidential and Nationwide Meeting polls is knowledgeable by the individuals’s satisfaction with the present administration. It will absolutely work in favour of the social gathering once more subsequent weekend.

Governor Emmanuel and his social gathering say they’ve met the yearnings of the individuals. However the APC within the state insists that with N6.85 billion annual Internally Generated Income (IGR) and N143. 6 billion from the Federation Account, not forgetting extra-statutory intervention funds like Ecological funds, Paris Membership Mortgage refunds, and so forth., the present administration within the state has not completed a lot to raised the lot of the individuals.

Akwa Ibom has 31 native authorities areas. Whereas Eket, the place each Emmanuel and Ekere hail from, has 12 native authorities areas, Akpabio’s Ikot Ekpene boasts of 10 council areas. The remaining 9 are present in Uyo District the place former Governor Victor Attah and Umanah hail from. On the final rely, there are 1,837, 767 registered voters within the three senatorial districts of the state.

The Northeastern Senatorial District is one place the place each APC and PDP ought to slug it out. With Umanah supporting Ekere, and Uyo being the seat of presidency and Emmanuel having lots of his individuals resident there. Whereas Umanah’s reputation in Uyo will help APC, PDP ought to profit from the votes of presidency functionaries and their individuals.

Obong Bassey Albert Akpan of the PDP has emerged the winner of the 2019 Senatorial race with 147,731 votes to beat his opponent Bassey Etim of the APC, who scored 60,930.

All in all, the PDP seems probably the most favored to win the governorship seat and majority of the state meeting seats within the state on Saturday, whereas the APC could must make do with just a few meeting seats.

Verdict: PDP

SOUTHWEST ZONE

OGUN STATE

Although the APC received the presidential election in Ogun State with 281, 762 votes to PDP’s 194, 655 and in addition pocketed the three senatorial seats within the state, pundits insist it’s not snug to say the ruling social gathering will retain the governorship seat of the state simply.

Largely answerable for that is the inner disaster inside the social gathering that has seen Governor Ibikunle Amosun throwing his weight behind Adekunle Akinlade of the Allied Peoples Motion (APM) as his most popular governorship candidate.

Apart the above, the competition on Saturday will definitely not be a straight ahead one. Not like up to now when the state’s unwritten political zoning settlement performed a job in figuring out the emergence of the candidates of the main events, highly effective political gladiators from all of the 4 zones of the state at the moment are locking horns within the contest that can decide who succeeds outgoing governor Amosun.

On the candidates’ record launched by the Unbiased Nationwide Electoral Fee (INEC), oil magnate, Dapo Abiodun from Iperu within the Remo axis of Ogun East, is the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) whereas Senator Buruji Kashamu, representing Ogun East Senatorial District within the Nationwide Meeting is the flag-bearer of the Peoples Democratic Celebration (PDP).

Additionally on the record of candidates launched by INEC are, Egba-born former Speaker of Home of Representatives, Dimeji Bankole as flag bearer of the Motion Democratic Celebration (ADP) and a two-time governorship candidate, Gboyega Nasiru Isiaka, who now flies the ticket of the African Democratic Congress (ADC). Isiaka, who’s from Yewa in Ogun West, was the candidate of the PDP in 2015. Adekunle Akinlade of the Allied Peoples Motion (APM) can be within the race from Yewaland.

With the above state of affairs, the 2019 governorship in Ogun State is enjoying out as a battle zone, as all of the 4 zones within the state at the moment are having not less than one main candidate within the race. That is opposite to the need of Governor Amosun and different notable political leaders within the state, together with former President Olusegun Obasanjo, to limit the race to a contest between candidates from the Yewa axis of the state.

The Ogun West Senatorial District is but to supply a governor since 1976 when the state was created, and Amosun was decided to interrupt the jinx. He campaigned vigorously for the ticket of the APC to be zoned to the world and he nearly achieved that earlier than the social gathering’s NWC overruled his consensus association and ordered a direct main election which Dapo Abiodun, from Remoland, a zone in Ogun East Senatorial District, received.

The PDP from day one by no means zoned the governorship ticket to Ogun West. Each factions of the social gathering within the state appear to have their eyes on producing a candidate from Ogun East too, as no critical contender emerged from Ogun West and Central all by way of the method resulting in the first elections of the Adebutu and Kashamu factions of the PDP.

Like Abiodun, Kashamu is from Ogun East and at the moment represents the district on the Nationwide Meeting. However he’s from Ijebuland, one other zone within the space which has additionally been clamoring to be given an opportunity to supply the governor of the state, 36 years after the late Bisi Onabanjo, its solely son to have been governor of the state, left workplace. His supporters say Abiodun from Remo can’t be governor simply eight years after Gbenga Daniel, one other Remo man, left workplace.

From Ogun Central, made up of the Egbas, former Speaker Dimeji Bankole is within the race. He’s unperturbed by the truth that outgoing governor Amosun is from the identical zone as himself. He says zoning mustn’t rob the state of one of the best fingers for the job. The congress that produced him came about in all of the 20 Native Authorities Areas and 236 wards within the state, in accordance with the Returning Officer for the first election, Mr. Chamberlain Amadu.

To not be neglected, the Yewas of Ogun West, most popular by Amosun and different opinion leaders to have the seat, have Isiaka within the race, however on the platform of little identified ADC, having didn’t bag the ticket of any of the 2 main political events. Akinlade, the popular candidate of Governor Amosun, had defected from the ruling APC to the APM, to maintain the Yewa agenda alive.

Analyzing the voting populations of the varied zones, analysts say if the individuals of the 4 autonomous clans determine to vote alongside tribal strains, the competition might not be selected the primary poll. “And it’s most definitely the electorates will put tribal consideration on the entrance burner on Election Day, given the acrimonious and sectional marketing campaign at the moment occurring,” Joju Daini of Voters Proper Agenda (VRA), advised The Nation.

“Ogun East with 9 native authorities areas misplaced the prospect of getting an edge over the opposite two zones following the emergence of candidates from the 2 zones within the space. So, its majority inhabitants can be shared by its two sons, Abiodun and Kashamu of APC and PDP respectively. They’re nonetheless helped by the truth that they’re candidates of the 2 main political events.

“Ogun Central with 5 native governments has solely Dimeji Bankole within the race. However he can be contending with the recognition of each APC and PDP in his zone. Whereas he’s anticipated to benefit from the solidarity of his individuals, the unpopular nature of his social gathering, the ADP within the state, will rob him of a landslide win within the Egbaland. Little doubt, he’ll share the lot with the candidates of broadly identified APC and PDP.

“The identical would be the destiny of Isiaka in Ogun West. He’ll profit immensely from the clamor of his individuals for the governorship however ADC as a celebration is the most important problem to his victory within the race. Chieftains of the ruling APC, which is sort of robust within the space, has refused to endorse his candidacy opposite to expectations within the zone. As a substitute, Akinlade, Amosun’s most popular candidate, has joined the APM as its governorship candidate,” Daini analyzed.

However some pundits say that is handy to say although the competition can be eager, the APC will win the election on the finish of the day. They primarily based their place on the weakened place of the PDP, the principle opposition social gathering and the lack of Governor Amosun and his political camp to overtly canvass votes for Akinlade of the APM. “So as to add to that is the Osinbajo issue. Though primarily based in Lagos, the Vice President hails from Ikenne-Remo within the Jap Senatorial District of the state. It’s anticipated that his kinsmen from Remoland and different components of the state will due to him, assist and vote for the APC candidates within the basic election.

Contemporary developments in the course of the week additionally weakened the ADC and strengthened the APC forward of weekend’s elections. A senatorial candidate of the ADC within the State, Deji Ashiru, and his supporters reportedly dumped the social gathering to assist the governorship candidate of the APC, Dapo Abiodun. Experiences additionally indicated that the ADC Ogun Central Senatorial candidate, Titi Oseni Gomez, has moved into the Dapo Abiodun camp.

Dependable ADC sources advised The Nation that the 2 senatorial candidates, who have been defeated within the senatorial election by the APC, deliberate to work for Abiodun, as political events and candidates forge alliances forward of the March 9 governorship election. They in all probability imagine Abiodun has a brighter probability to win the elections. Whereas Ashiru had confirmed his defection, Gomez was but to reply to enquiries despatched to her as at press time.

Additionally, regardless of the weird political ripples, APC evidently enjoys considerable assist throughout the state. The Federal Authorities’s consideration to main roads within the state, together with the Sagamu-Ikorodu street and Lagos-Ibadan Expressway can be swaying assist for the social gathering throughout the state. Additionally, Buhari’s choice to immortalise the late Chief MKO Abiola, an indigene of Ogun, by declaring June 12 because the nation’s Democracy Day, stays a political transfer effectively aimed.

It has endeared the social gathering to the elites within the state and it’s anticipated to assist garner some votes throughout the state for APC. Equally, quite a few artisans and merchants throughout the state who benefitted from the Tradermoni scheme are supporting the candidates of the ruling social gathering simply as many youths now having fun with underneath the N-Energy employment scheme within the state, are poised to reward the APC. It’s for these causes that analysts concluded that although the election can be dramatic, the APC should still win.

Verdict: Battleground

LAGOS STATE

Though the APC in Lagos State retained its political maintain on the state by profitable all of the three senate seats and garnering nearly all of the Home of Representatives seats within the state, pundits say the social gathering should be cautious because the governorship election strategy if it intends to cease the need of the opposition PDP to invade the state politically. The results of the presidential contest within the state, to many, is an extra affirmation that the PDP is waxing stronger within the state.

The APC obtained 580, 825 votes whereas the PDP garnered 448, 015 votes within the presidential contest and pundits say the PDP has drastically diminished the margin when in comparison with 2015 when it equally trailed the ruling social gathering within the presidential contest. Additionally, the plain discount within the variety of votes recorded by APC in Lagos, from 792, 460 in 2015 to a 580, 825 final Saturday is a supply of fear to supporters of the social gathering within the state.

And contemplating the menace to “take over Lagos” by the opposition PDP, it’s now not very handy to foretell that APC will simply win the governorship election. Pundits are even of the opinion that except the ruling social gathering up its recreation earlier than the following election within the state, the opposition PDP will carry out higher than it did in 2015 when it gave the ruling APC an excellent battle in all of the elections. APC scored 811,994 to defeat the PDP which had 659,788 within the governorship race again then.

“APC should get up and shake off this complacency with which they appear to be approaching this yr’s basic election. The PDP has once more put up an excellent battle prefer it did in 2015. The APC should go all out to reconnect with the individuals of Lagos. APC remains to be the social gathering to beat in Lagos however the social gathering should take drastic political steps to chase away the menace continuously being posed by the opposition social gathering,” an analyst warned.

Though the PDP and its candidates, inspired by the end result of the presidential election, are working laborious to garner votes for the social gathering, the persona of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, Nationwide Chief of the APC, nonetheless looms giant throughout the state. He is among the components anticipated to work in favour of the APC subsequent Saturday. Celebration sources stated Tinubu has instructed that chieftains and members of the social gathering within the state should go all out to win extra votes for the APC.

Analysts have additionally warned that it is going to be foolhardy for the PDP to conclude that the individuals of the state will vote within the governorship and State Meeting elections the identical approach they voted within the presidential election. “All politics are native. Many Lagosians voted towards Buhari and never the APC. A lot of them can be voting for Jide Sanwoolu, the APC guber candidate. So the 2 contests must be approached in a different way,” an observer stated.

To the social gathering’s benefit is the truth that chieftains like Chief Mrs. Remi Adiukwu, Senator Musiliu Obanikoro, and its then state chairman, Moshood Salvador, at the moment are within the APC. Many PDP bigwigs, together with Chief Bode George, although nonetheless within the opposition social gathering, are on a self-imposed political holidays, leaving the social gathering with out a identified chief within the state.

The PDP has additionally misplaced lots of the areas it garnered votes to the APC following the defection of virtually all of the state and federal lawmakers that received on its platform into the APC. Thus, erstwhile strongholds of the PDP like Oshodi-Isolo, Ajeromi-Ifelodun, Ojo, Badagry and Amuwo-Odofin at the moment are brimming with APC chieftains able to get the votes for the ruling social gathering.

Additionally, the APC ticket will profit from the acceptance being loved within the state by Vice President Yemi Osinbajo. The selection of Osinbajo has been a success throughout the Southwest and that is anticipated to translate into votes on Election Day for the APC. Despite the criticisms trailing a few of Governor Akinwunmi Ambode’s insurance policies and tasks, observers say the APC authorities within the state has carried out sufficient to maintain the voters trusting its candidates.

Nonetheless, as normal, the PDP is placing up an excellent battle within the state largely by concentrating on the votes of non-indigenes throughout the state. Jimi Agbaje, the social gathering’s governorship flag-bearer, has additionally been promising non-indigenes higher offers underneath a PDP administration within the state. In the course of the week, the 2 events intensified their mobilisation efforts throughout the state.

However the ruling APC nonetheless look good to brush victory as normal. Analysts say the truth on floor doesn’t assist PDP’s quest for political management of the Southwest state regardless of its surprising efficiency final week. All issues being equal, the APC ought to get majority of the whole votes forged within the governorship election and in addition win many of the meeting seats within the state.

Verdict: APC

OYO STATE

APC received the Presidential election in Oyo over the past presidential election when President Buhari squared up towards former President Jonathan. APC scored 528, 620 whereas PDP obtained 303, 376. The state was the stronghold of the opposition PDP till not too long ago. However earlier than final weekend’s presidential election, majority of these chieftains who made the PDP thick within the state have jumped ship or gone into political oblivion, leaving the social gathering in assumed limbo.

The likes of former governors Rashidi Ladoja and Adebayo Alao-Akala are now not with the social gathering. Whereas Ladoja now leads the Zenith Labour Celebration (ZLP) within the state, Alao-Akala is the gubernatorial candidate of the Motion Democratic Celebration (ADP). Each leaders have additionally misplaced a few of their chieftains to the ruling APC in latest instances, particularly Alao-Akala, who joined the APC briefly after dumping the PDP.

Different erstwhile PDP prime weapons like former Senate Chief, Senator Teslim Folarin and former Secretary to the State Authorities, Chief Ayodele Adigun at the moment are within the APC working for the success of its candidates. Observers of the politics of the state had stated PDP in Oyo state was a ghost of its superb previous and can’t put up any critical problem to the victory of the ruling APC within the basic election.

After a critical menace to its peace by a disagreement between Governor Abiola Ajimobi and Communications Minister, Barrister Adebayo Shitu, the APC in Oyo appeared to had repositioned itself to rout the opposition in all of the elections. Buhari was anticipated to win the best variety of votes within the presidential election in Oyo state on the energy of the recognition of his social gathering within the state.

However all of the above permutations have been put to nought by the surprising end result of the presidential and nationwide meeting elections within the state. The APC misplaced the state gallantly to the PDP in what many observers are nonetheless calling a shock efficiency by the underrated opposition PDP. Even Governor Ajimobi, who had boasted that his social gathering will trounced the opposition throughout the state, misplaced his senatorial bid.

Former Vice President of Nigeria and candidate of the PDP, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, received the Presidential election held throughout the 33 Native Authorities areas in Oyo state. The PDP candidate received in 18 Native Authorities areas whereas Buhari of the APC received in 15. The ultimate consequence confirmed that Atiku Abubakar scored 366,640 to defeat Buhari who scored 365,229 votes.

Whereas many are placing the surprising defeat on the toes of the intra social gathering crises that noticed the likes of Alao-Akala transferring out after the first election, others are fast responsible Governor Ajimobi for the defeat. They argued that by taking up highly effective people and teams just like the Olubadan of Ibadan and different elites inside the capital metropolis, the governor costed APC its anticipated assist from the Ibadans, who’re within the majority throughout the state.

To additional add to APC’s issues, main opposition events within the state at the moment are holding alliance talks forward of Saturday’s governorship election. Gubernatorial candidate of the PDP within the state, Seyi Makinde, disclosed that opposition events within the state are at the moment assembly and have agreed to make their ambitions secondary. He assured that the alliance will deliver one thing good for the individuals of the state.

The PDP candidate, whereas confirming that opposition events have been able to dislodge the APC, maintained that each one the opposition events have to come back collectively for them to attain the purpose of unsitting the ruling social gathering. He stated, “We’re working actually laborious to make sure that a workable coalition is ready to come ahead to problem the APC in Oyo. “And I imagine for the forthcoming election, we’re going to see a grand alliance in Oyo State,” he assured.

It was additionally confirmed that the ruling social gathering too, recovering from its surprising defeat by the PDP within the presidential and nationwide meeting races, is now looking for alliance with another events. The Nation learnt {that a} critical dialogue is at the moment ongoing between Alao-Akala’s ADP and the APC within the state. This, nonetheless, is because the ADP can be in talks with PDP and different events.

It was additionally gathered that the supply of alliances to ADP from the 2 main events, APC and PDP, grew to become a supply of disagreement amongst Alao-Akala’s supporters because the social gathering sought to take a choice forward of the governorship polls. A number of the allies of the previous governor have been of the opinion that any alignment with the APC quantity to Alao Akala going again to his personal vomit. They noticed an alliance with the PDP as one of the best for ADP to show Ajimobi and the APC a giant lesson.

However many others felt the politically upright factor to do is to assist an alignment with the APC. These on this college of thought held that Alao-Akala and his supporters would profit much more from becoming a member of the ruling social gathering as a substitute of the PDP as a result of the APC is the social gathering on the centre. In the meantime, there are those that wished Alao-Akala to shun all talks of alliance and go all the best way to contest the governorship election as a result of they felt he regarded good to win the competition forward of each APC and PDP.

Nonetheless, with the Ogbomosho axis of the state firmly within the grip of Alao-Akala and his males, his newest choice to work with the APC in the course of the gubernatorial and state meeting elections may have a significant affect on the eventual end result of the election. He gave indications that he could also be returning to APC after assembly with the nationwide chief of the social gathering, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu.

The ADP governorship candidate visited Tinubu within the firm of his spouse, Oluwakemi Alao-Akala; his son, Olamiju and the Director Basic of his marketing campaign, Wale Ohu, at Bourdillon on Thursday. The previous governor had requested to be given time to make a proper assertion on the assembly with the APC nationwide chief. “It’s true. Each of us have been assembly and we are going to proceed to satisfy. I’ll name you in 24 hours to let the state of issues,” he stated.

On Friday, in an announcement by the Director Basic, Akala Marketing campaign Group, Chief Wale Ohu, Alao-Akala stated going by the outcomes of the February 23 presidential and Nationwide Meeting election, not a lot may be achieved in isolation. “We have now felt the heartbeat of the individuals whose assist has introduced us this far: it will be important that we dance once they play the tunes.To this impact, the Oyo state ADP and the Akala Marketing campaign Organisation hereby name on all our members, teeming supporters and well-wishers throughout the state to come back on board on this transfer in direction of positioning our state for higher nationwide curiosity,” he stated.

Approaching day when the previous governor shunned the continuing alliance assembly of opposition events within the state on Friday, many observers have concluded that Alao-Akala’s new port of name is the APC, his former social gathering. Whereas governorship candidates of different events attended the assembly at Sen. Rashidi Ladoja’s Bodija, Ibadan residence, Akala, who was the mind behind the alliance, was absent. Equally, a chieftain of the ADC within the state, Chief Michael Koleosho, has reportedly joined the APC workforce. Koleosho’s coming is anticipated to spice up APC’s probabilities in his native Saki and different Oke-Ogun cities.

In the meantime, The Nation gathered that alliance talks and conferences among the many political events are nonetheless ongoing throughout the state even because the nationwide leaderships of each the APC and the PDP could have intervened into efforts to get different events into their kitty. With all of the going-on within the politics of the state forward of subsequent Saturday’s gubernatorial elections, the eventual end result of the election in Oyo state nonetheless stays too near name.

Verdict: Battleground

(The Nation)

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